Trump Census Plan Could Strip House Seats From States With Large Immigrant Populations
The Trump administration is moving to change who counts in the 2030 census, proposing to exclude millions of noncitizens from the population totals used to divide House seats among the states. The shift could cost states with large immigrant populations representation in Congress and Electoral College votes.
Under a Census Bureau rule proposed Thursday, U.S. citizens and lawful permanent residents, commonly known as green card holders, would count toward congressional apportionment. Other foreign citizens would not, including undocumented immigrants and many people legally living in the United States under temporary or less permanent immigration status.
The plan goes further than excluding undocumented immigrants. Some people who have legally lived and worked in the United States for years could also be left out of the population used to determine how much representation their state receives in Congress.
That would mark a significant change from the 2020 census, when foreign citizens living in the United States were generally counted where they lived and slept most of the time regardless of immigration status.
States with large immigrant populations could see the biggest effects. A 2020 Pew Research Center analysis found that excluding undocumented immigrants alone could have left California, Florida and Texas with one fewer House seat each than they would have received if those residents were included. The new proposal would reach a broader group because some legally present immigrants could also be left out.
House representation is capped at 435 seats, so changes in one state's population can affect how seats are distributed elsewhere. Electoral College representation is also tied in part to the size of each state's House delegation.
Census population figures are widely used across the federal government and can influence the distribution of federal money, although any funding impact from the proposed rule would depend on which census data individual programs rely on.
The Census Bureau is seeking to redefine a person's "usual residence" for congressional apportionment. The administration argues that residence can reflect legal status, permanence and a person's ties to the United States rather than physical presence alone.
Lawful permanent residents would remain in the count because the administration says their status creates a sufficiently durable connection to the country. Foreign citizens who are neither U.S. citizens nor permanent residents would generally be excluded, while the bureau is asking whether some other immigration categories should receive similar treatment.
The proposal is also likely to revive a constitutional fight that began during President Donald Trump's first term.
The 14th Amendment requires House seats to be apportioned among the states according to the "whole number of persons in each State." Previous challenges to efforts to exclude noncitizens have focused on whether the government can remove residents from the apportionment population based on immigration status.
The administration is relying on a different reading of residency, pointing to the historical meaning of "usual residence" and arguing that the concept can include allegiance or a lasting connection to a state.
The Census Bureau is considering using government records to determine who qualifies for the apportionment count. Available information includes records from the Department of Homeland Security, State Department, Treasury Department and other federal agencies, along with state, local and commercial data.
Officials are also seeking comment on whether the 2030 census questionnaire should directly ask respondents about legal status.
Trump tried to add a citizenship question to the 2020 census during his first term, prompting a case that reached the Supreme Court. In 2019, the justices blocked the administration from moving forward based on the rationale it had presented, finding that the Commerce Department's explanation for adding the question did not match the administrative record. The Court did not rule that a citizenship question was unconstitutional.
Trump later ordered undocumented immigrants excluded from the population used to apportion House seats after the 2020 census. The Supreme Court dismissed a challenge to that policy as premature, leaving unresolved whether the government could legally carry out the exclusion.
The 2030 proposal could bring the issue back before the courts in a broader form because the rule would also reach some noncitizens who are legally present in the country.
The proposal would not immediately change how residents are counted. The Census Bureau is accepting public comments through October 13 before deciding whether to finalize the new standards ahead of the 2030 census.
